導(dǎo)語(yǔ)：房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂研究論文一文來(lái)源于網(wǎng)友上傳，不代表本站觀點(diǎn)，若需要原創(chuàng)文章可咨詢(xún)客服老師，歡迎參考。

摘要：房地產(chǎn)泡沫的破裂首先對(duì)銀行產(chǎn)生巨大的危害，通過(guò)對(duì)包括香港在內(nèi)的22個(gè)工業(yè)化國(guó)家和地產(chǎn)的住房市場(chǎng)及股市的熱潮和衰落的研究，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)住房?jī)r(jià)格下跌更可能使銀行受到打擊，原因是在多數(shù)國(guó)家，銀行主導(dǎo)著購(gòu)房貸款業(yè)務(wù)。但是房地產(chǎn)泡沫所帶來(lái)的災(zāi)難遠(yuǎn)不止停留在銀行的層面上。

關(guān)鍵詞：房地產(chǎn)泡沫；泡沫破裂；經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)；政治危機(jī)；社會(huì)危機(jī)

一、房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂誘發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)

(一)生產(chǎn)萎縮

房地產(chǎn)泡沫的破滅往往伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條，股價(jià)下跌，企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)營(yíng)運(yùn)逐漸陷入困境。股價(jià)下跌使企業(yè)發(fā)行的大量可轉(zhuǎn)換公司認(rèn)股權(quán)在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)不能轉(zhuǎn)為股權(quán)，從而給企業(yè)帶來(lái)巨額的償債負(fù)擔(dān)；此外，地價(jià)和股價(jià)下跌也使企業(yè)承受了巨大的資產(chǎn)評(píng)估損失和被迫出售土地和股票的銷(xiāo)售損失。企業(yè)收益的減少又使得投資不足，既降低了研究開(kāi)發(fā)投資水平，也減少了企業(yè)在設(shè)備上的投資。1992年，日本制造業(yè)的研究開(kāi)發(fā)費(fèi)用下降3.5％，以這次危機(jī)為轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，日本逐漸失去了在汽車(chē)和半導(dǎo)體等部門(mén)的優(yōu)勢(shì)。生產(chǎn)的不景氣又導(dǎo)致了雇傭環(huán)境的惡化和居民實(shí)際收入的下降。據(jù)泰國(guó)官方統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字，1998年1至7月，泰國(guó)破產(chǎn)企業(yè)達(dá)5,377家，停產(chǎn)企業(yè)達(dá)6,538家。至1997年底，失業(yè)人數(shù)達(dá)120萬(wàn)，1998年又增加到200萬(wàn)。

(二)消費(fèi)銳減

Caseetal.(2001)等人的研究指出房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的變動(dòng)對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響遠(yuǎn)大于股票，以香港經(jīng)驗(yàn)來(lái)看，是當(dāng)樓價(jià)大幅下滑造成大量負(fù)資產(chǎn)，房地產(chǎn)交易大幅減少，連帶建筑、工程、銀行抵押及律師行的生意大受影響，最終影響會(huì)擴(kuò)展至高檔消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)及其它行業(yè)。此外，地價(jià)的下跌使得居民個(gè)人所擁有的土地資產(chǎn)貶值。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣和個(gè)人收入水平的下降，居民對(duì)未來(lái)懷有不同程度的憂(yōu)心，因此會(huì)減少當(dāng)期的消費(fèi)，擴(kuò)大收入中的儲(chǔ)蓄部分。以備不時(shí)之需，以美國(guó)經(jīng)驗(yàn)來(lái)看，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的下滑至少使經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率下降2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)以上。

(三)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下降

個(gè)人消費(fèi)的萎縮又使眾多生產(chǎn)消費(fèi)品的產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)陷入困境。令大量企業(yè)倒閉及裁員。圖1為1982年至2006年香港失業(yè)率和就業(yè)不足率情況，自1998年開(kāi)始不斷攀升，直至2004年才開(kāi)始下降。企業(yè)倒閉及裁員意味著大量的失業(yè)員工，即使沒(méi)有倒閉的企業(yè)。由于收益的下降也要不斷裁減人員。

二、房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂還可能引發(fā)政治和社會(huì)危機(jī)

隨著房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的發(fā)生，失業(yè)人數(shù)劇增，社會(huì)民怨會(huì)增加。以香港為例，1997年房地產(chǎn)泡沫破滅后，以舉報(bào)個(gè)案計(jì)算的犯罪率開(kāi)始攀升，由1997年的每10萬(wàn)人有1,038宗，增加至2004年的1,299宗，增幅高達(dá)25.14％，直至2005年才開(kāi)始同落。以圖2為例，由1997年至2005年間犯罪率與香港私人住宅售價(jià)指數(shù)走勢(shì)基本上呈相反方向變動(dòng)，即當(dāng)住宅指數(shù)下跌時(shí)，犯罪率會(huì)上升，相反亦言，由于2001年及2002年屬于不規(guī)則情況，若從圖中剔除，并以虛線連接2000年及2003年，前跡的反向關(guān)系更為清晰。

我們?cè)僖陨Ⅻc(diǎn)圖重繪香港私人住宅售價(jià)指數(shù)(以平均計(jì)算)與犯罪率的關(guān)系。由點(diǎn)的分布來(lái)看，兩者存在反向關(guān)系，但并不是直線關(guān)系，表明還有其它因素在發(fā)生作用。由于人們對(duì)日益惡化的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)感到不滿(mǎn)，香港社會(huì)危機(jī)逐漸加劇。中產(chǎn)階級(jí)、負(fù)資產(chǎn)業(yè)主、工人，甚至商家此起彼伏地采用不同形式向政府表達(dá)不滿(mǎn)、終于導(dǎo)致發(fā)生了2003年7月1日的50萬(wàn)人示威游行，幸而在中央的大力支持下，示威并沒(méi)有引起暴亂，亦沒(méi)有造成社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩不安。但在經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)每況愈下，最終迫使董建華以健康理由在2005年3月10日向中央請(qǐng)辭。

香港房地產(chǎn)泡沫破滅亦同樣令百業(yè)蕭條，失業(yè)率上升，但香港的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)較堅(jiān)穩(wěn)，社會(huì)福利保障亦較其它東南亞國(guó)家完善，盡管民怨日深，但始終沒(méi)有造成太大的社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩。在圖4為由1997年4月至2005年3月香港私人住宅售價(jià)指數(shù)與特首董建華的支特度走趨比較，不難發(fā)現(xiàn)董建華自出任特首開(kāi)始，支特度一直下跌，與樓價(jià)走勢(shì)相似，但波動(dòng)幅度較細(xì)，支特度長(zhǎng)期在50以下，而2003年7月期間更一度跌至40以下。

圖5為香港私人住宅售價(jià)指數(shù)與特首董建華的支特度的相關(guān)度分析，我們可以見(jiàn)到在樓價(jià)由55至95之區(qū)間，正相關(guān)度較高，高于或低于此區(qū)間，相關(guān)度較低，反映民意認(rèn)為某些環(huán)境不是特區(qū)政府或董建華所能控制的，例如亞洲金融風(fēng)暴或非典疫情令房?jī)r(jià)下跌，說(shuō)明香港民意是有理智的。

三、總結(jié)

總而言之，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展，關(guān)系到相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展以及整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題，關(guān)系到政府對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的調(diào)控措施制定、企業(yè)投資方向確定以及金融機(jī)構(gòu)決策等。如果對(duì)房地產(chǎn)的泡沫程度、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估有誤，將可能會(huì)對(duì)個(gè)人、企業(yè)和社會(huì)造成無(wú)法估量的損失。日本、東南亞、香港等國(guó)家和地區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)泡沫所引發(fā)的金融危機(jī)幾乎使這些國(guó)家和地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)一蹶不振，也造成大批企業(yè)倒閉，投資者傾家蕩產(chǎn)。近代的資產(chǎn)泡沫破滅事件不但規(guī)模大、次數(shù)頻密、影響深遠(yuǎn)，而且不再局限于資本市場(chǎng)，有互動(dòng)、跨國(guó)和跨產(chǎn)業(yè)的趨勢(shì)。近代較嚴(yán)重的泡沫事件包括八十年代末發(fā)生在日本的房地產(chǎn)泡沫、九十年代末發(fā)生的亞洲金融危機(jī)導(dǎo)致部分東南亞地區(qū)的地產(chǎn)泡沫破滅，及在2000年發(fā)生的科網(wǎng)股泡沫破滅。至于香港，早于1881年便首次出現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)泡沫，但令人們記憶猶新的還是由1997年至2003年間房地產(chǎn)曾瀉近70％的經(jīng)歷。事實(shí)上，房地產(chǎn)泡沫在世界上其它大城市亦隨處可見(jiàn)，上海由1995年至1999年間房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格下跌了近38％，莫斯科在1995年至1999年間下跌了近67％，巴黎在1991年至1998年間下跌了近43％。當(dāng)然，房地產(chǎn)泡沫與大多數(shù)投機(jī)泡沫一樣，最終逃不了暴跌的下場(chǎng)。每一次房地產(chǎn)泡沫破滅不但令許多私房擁有者帶來(lái)痛苦，也對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)氐慕?jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，甚至給政府的管治威信帶來(lái)沉重的打擊。研究房地產(chǎn)泡沫的成因、形成過(guò)程、泡沫破滅的誘因和導(dǎo)火線，舒解和燙平泡沫的方法和對(duì)策，特別是在設(shè)立預(yù)警機(jī)制、REITs和衍生工具(例如根據(jù)Halifac房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)而設(shè)的hedgelets)，不但對(duì)社會(huì)穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有一定的實(shí)用性，而且對(duì)房地產(chǎn)以至金融理論的創(chuàng)新亦有一定的價(jià)值。因而，正確分析房地產(chǎn)泡沫的成因，房地產(chǎn)泡沫存在與否及泡沫的規(guī)模，從而正確評(píng)價(jià)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，對(duì)于政府宏觀調(diào)控、房地產(chǎn)商投資決策及金融機(jī)構(gòu)決策等都有很好的參考作用(謝明干、江春澤1999)。readers.TraumatizedbytherapeofSetheandthema-ternalviolation,Hallegraduallyloseshismind.Hisselfhoodshatters.Hesmearedthatbutteronhisface,Sethethinks,becausethemilktheytookfromherisonhismindeventually.Thosecomplexfactorsdrivehiminmentaldisorderasmostmadpeopledo.Even,hedisappearsfromthecommunityforpermanentes-capefromthetrauma,themortalruinratherthanper-manentsafety.

Passivevictims

Asfatherdoes,HowardandBugler,sonsofSetheandHallerunawayafterlivingin124forsev-eralyears.NotbehavinglikeDenver,theirsister,theycan''''tfacethehauntingspiritcombinedwiththeirmother''''sprayerforpenancein124.Theydenynotinslavery.Asresearchofpsychoanalysisreveals,exil-ingisonewaytotraumawhenoneisunabletoresolveitwithmentalstrength.Thebrothersresponditintheway.It''''simpossibleforthevictimstohealtheirtrau-mawhentheychoosedeathlystillnessinfrontofpain,whichbringsonpessimisticattitudestowardslifeandpassivewaytowardstrauma.Theyaresoyoungthatthetraumaticeffectofslaveryisdestructiveforthem.Tosomedegree,theysharethesamestatewiththeirpoorfather,permanentself-exilingwiththeincurabletrauma.

Survivingvictims

PaulDisoneoftheenslavedinSweetHome,whereSetheandHalleisenslaved.UnlikeSetheboundingherselfin124afterallhardships,heexpe-riencesmore,combedwithallhardshipsandarduousself-reorganization.

His"tobaccotin"causedbyformertraumaisarousedbyBeloved,wholiterallymanipulateshim,makinghimphysicallyrestlessandforcinghimtosleepwithherintheshedoutsidethehouse.ThoughPaulD''''shatredforBelovedneverceases,theirstrange,dreamlikesexualencountersopenthelidofhis"tobaccotin"heart,allowinghimtoremember,feel,andloveagain.ThetraumaticawakingplaysaroleagainwhenhetemporarilyretreatsafterlearningSethemurderingherchild."Hemustworkoutofaconditionofpsychicfragmentation——hisselfhoodhasbeenseverelyimpaired,hisstatusasahumansubjectdeniedbytheslaveculture".

WhenhedecidestoreturnstoSetheandherfearful,murderouslove,hetriestoreconstructfuture.HehasthecapacitytoleadSetheoutofhernarcissis-ticisolationandintorelationshipwiththeexternalworld."Heisabletosalvageoutofthewreckagebol-steringfaithinbothselfandother.HetriestopassthisfaithontoSetheattheend."Hisfingersholdinghers,hetoldSethethatSetheherselfwasherbestthinginsteadofBeloved.Hisfaithindicatestheinitia-tivesofdealingwithtrauma.Hesuccessfullydoesit,andsodoesSetheashewishes.ThescenebetweenthemattheendcomesclosesttothestateofmutualrecognitionandattunementbyPaulD''''slastrescue.Hisstrugglewitnessesthevictoryofbeatingthetrau-mabequeathedbyslaveryBesidesPaulD,Denverisanothercharacterofhealingthetraumaandachievingmaturityaftersuffer-ing.Thougheighteenyearsold,sheactsmuchyounger,maintaininganintensefearoftheworldout-side124andaperilouslyfragilesenseofself.Feelinglonelyandexiled,herself-hooddevelopswiththegrowingofhersenseofself.

Sheisenlightenedbythelattercrisisofherpoorfamily.InthefaceofBeloved''''sescalatingmalevo-lenceandhermother''''ssubmissiveness,Denverisforcedtostepoutsidetheworldof124.Filledwithasenseofduty,purpose,andcourage,herdeparturefrom124marksthebeginningofhersocialintegrationandofhersearchforindependence,self-possessionandseparateself.Despiteallhardships,shepracticeshernirvana,whichisagreatexaltationofthepsyche.Vengefulvictimandpurgatorialone

Belovediscombinationofpre-Oedipalcomplex,achild''''searly(non-sexual)fixationonthemotherpri-ortothechild''''sentranceintotheOedipalComplexi-dentifiedbyFreudandmaternalhatred,whichseemverycontradictory.

Attheverybeginning,BelovedandDenverloveeachotherlikeaunion.WhenthetruththatBelovedistheghostofDenver''''sdeadsisterisrevealed,theydenieseachotherfortheirdesireforthesamemother.Thesenseofenvyisalsopre-Oedipalcomplex.Underthecircumstance,sister-hoodgiveswaytomother-hood.

Paradoxically,Beloved''''sdesireformotherisvengefulduetohertraumaofbeingkilledbyherownmother.ShemakeseffortstotorturesSethementallyaspossibleasshecan.TheinteractionbetweenBelovedandSetheistenseandvulnerableliketheenduranceofachord.OnceSethereciprocatesBeloved''''sviolentpassionforher,thetwobecomelockedinadestruc-tive,exclusive,parasiticrelationship.

Sometimes,Belovedbecomesextremelymalevo-lent.ThesceneinwhichshealmoststranglesSethe,anactthatmirrorsthewayhermotherpreviouslysawedthroughherthroat,suggestsherextremehatredonSethe.Herrevengeispracticedbyherviolenceandviciousness:sheseduceshermother''''slover(PaulD)andattacksSethe''''sdog,herhouse,andSetheherself.Becausemotheranddaughterhavebecomeindistin-guishablebyherwretcheddemands,inwhichSethebecomesemaciatedwhileshebecomesfat,herattackonSetheiseffectivelyaformofself-destructionatthesametimesheruinsSethefiercely.Bytheway,herresentmentwillbeeasedlittle.Hervengefuldesireissopoignantthatthatallareruinedwon''''tsatisfyher.Sheisacursedghost,whoisnotonlycursedbutalsocursesthewhole.124isherconsiderableplace,whereeverythingisarrangedforherresentment.Hertraumaseemsincurablebecauseitisfrequentlydepositedandincreasedforeverlikeinanition.

MorefortunatethanBeloved,Setheisstillcur-ablealthoughsheisalmostruinedbythehardshipsofslavery.Whatsheexperiencesisthepurgatorialsuffer-ing,themostseverepaininlife.

Inthehardshipsofslavery,unwillingtorelin-quishherchildrentothephysical,emotional,andspir-itualtraumashehasenduredasaslave,shesuccess-fullymurdersoneofherchildren,whichsheconsidersasanactofmother''''sloveandprotection.Actually,thedeedistheextremeofmother''''sdevotiontoherbaby,whichsherepeatsandemphasizesforseveraltimesinfrontofothers.Herextremeisoneoftenden-cypeoplearelikelytohavewhentheyareintheposi-tionofpossessionandlosing.Sheconsidersherbabyasonepartofherself,thebeautifulpart,whichshehasrighttodispose.Inthehardesttime,thetimeofdespair,shedesperatelydecidesthebaby''''sdestina-tionbymurderinghercruelly.Theextremecrueltylingersonhermindasatraumainherlatterlifeaftertheendoftheslavery.Afterwards,Sethe''''sbehaviorbecomespurgatorial.Sheenclosesherselfin124,whereshecanregretforhercrueltyofmurderingherbaby.Sheisunabletotellanyoneaboutherpastandsheistotallyenslavedbyit.

Sheisbrokendownandalsocuredwhenshebe-comeshysteriainstrugglewithhertrauma,whichisunintentionallytreatedwhilesheisforcedbyBelovedtorecalltheunendurablepast——storiesaboutherownfeelingsofabandonmentbyhermother,abouttheharshestindignitiesshesufferedatSweetHome,andabouthermotivationsformurderingherdaughter.Herhysteriaisconfirmedbyheractionsintheexorcismscene,wheresheattackstheliberalwhiteman,Ed-wardBodwin.FreudandBreuerproposedthathysteri-calsymptomsdisappearwhenthememoryofthedis-turbingeventthatfirstprovokedsymptomsisrecalledandtheaffectoftraumaisaroused.Curecomesthroughthereproductionoftheprimalsceneoftrau-ma,whichcreatesanopportunityforrevisionofthepsychiceventsthatcausetheprimaltrauma.

SethetryingtokillBodwinsymbolicallyconsti-tutesarestagingofhertrauma:thedeathofherdaughter.BodwinapproachesthehousetocollectDen-verforworkinthesamewaythatschoolteacherap-proachedtorecapturehisslaves.Butthistime,Sethechoosesadifferentcourseofaction.Insteadoftryingtoprotectherchildrenbykillingthem,shefliesatBodwinwithanicepick.Forthefirsttime,herprotestisdirectedoutwardtowardthesourceofoppression,representedbyBodwin(whostandsforschoolteacher),ratherthantakingtheformofself-destructionofmur-deringherownchildrenlasttime.AtthatmomentBeloveddisappears.Sheisalsoreleasedandsavedbymother''''shysteriaandherdesperateresponsetothesametrauma,whichthemotherandthedaughtershareforsolong.

OnlywhenSethelearnstoconfrontthepasthead-on,toassertherselfinitspresence,canshelib-eratesherselffromitsoppressivepowerandbegintolivefreely,peacefully,andresponsiblyinthepresent.Aftertheclimax,SetheisextremelyexhaustedwhilePaulDeventuallyreturnstothehouse.Whensheliesinbed,PaulDgivesherhope,gentlytouchingherface:"Meandyou,wegotmoreyesterdaythanany-body…Weneedsomekindoftomorrow.""''''Youyourbestthing,Sethe.Youare.''''Hisholdingfingersareholdinghers.''''Me?Me?"AlthoughSetheisunsureaboutherself,shebeginstorecognizethatsheherselfmaybethecenterofherlife,ratherthanthepassingbabyorthepastgoneby.SheisforgivennotonlybyPaulDbutalsobythecirclesofblacks,whoarealsothevictimsofslavery.HerdesireandPaulD''''sareunlockedtoenvisionthefreshfutureforthem.Inasense,theybringoneanotherbacktolife.Theircon-solingpower,whichliesinthemutualityoftheinnerexperienceandsufferingafterallthetrauma,leadsthecharacterstonirvana,thefocusfromthetraumaticpasttothepresentunderway.

Asthedemonstrationabove,peoplerespondtotraumadistinctivelyanddeservevariouseffects."Thehardshipshavedeeprepercussionsintheindividual''''sinternalworldsothatevenifoneiseventuallyfreedfromexternalbondage,theselfwillstillbetrappedinaninnerworldthatpreventsagenuineexperienceoffreedom."Ifonecansavethemselvesoutoftheinnerillusionofbondageandfacetherealitydespitethetraumaticpastand,themortaltraumawillbeerased,nirvanabeyondthetrauma.